Epidemiology and Infection

Communities exposed to flooding can experience markedly different mental health outcomes, yet conventional resilience indicators capture only part of the social and contextual conditions that may explain this variation. This study develops a multilevel and predictive framework for examining community resilience and depressive symptoms following flood exposure in Indonesia. Data were drawn from 20,303 respondents aged 15 years and older nested within 312 communities in the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS-5). Depressive symptoms were assessed using the 10-item Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10), with Rasch Partial Credit Model calibration used to examine measurement properties. Bayesian multilevel models quantified between-community heterogeneity and assessed how far observable structural resources accounted for this variation. Community resilience was represented through two complementary constructs: structural resilience, based on observable socioeconomic and social-capital resources, and Latent Community Protective Capacity (LCPC), a model-derived proxy for residual contextual variation in depressive-symptom risk. Approximately 6 percent of variation was attributable to between-community differences, while observable structural resources explained only part of this heterogeneity. Structural resilience and LCPC were weakly correlated (r = 0.155). Moderation analyses provided no clear evidence that structural resilience altered the flood-depression association, while LCPC showed a directionally consistent but uncertain buffering pattern. Predictive models incorporating community-level information improved discrimination, with the best-performing model reaching an ROC-AUC of approximately 0.71. The findings suggest that observable resource-based indices provide an incomplete account of community-level mental health vulnerability and that residual contextual measures may provide complementary information, while requiring cautious interpretation and independent validation.

Violent conflicts increasingly involve multiple armed actors competing for influence over shared civilian populations, creating complex dynamics that challenge conventional security analysis and policy design. We present a framework that adapts epidemiological methods informed by the conflict landscape in Nigeria to model multi-actor violent conflict as an epidemic process. We derive a basic insecurity reproduction number ($R_0$), identify violence-free and persistent-violence equilibria, and introduce a novel Civilian Harm Index (CHI) to quantify humanitarian impact. Sensitivity analyses identify recruitment, ideological support from civilian populations, and abduction as the key drivers of conflict persistence and civilian harm. The framework reveals several counterintuitive findings. Interventions that most effectively suppress violence transmission are not necessarily those that minimise civilian harm, demonstrating that epidemic control and humanitarian protection may require distinct optimisation criteria. Likewise, interventions effective against one armed actor may be ineffective, or even counterproductive, when applied uniformly across groups. In addition, prisoner exchange and ransom payments increase violence persistence and civilian harm. Although developed as an illustrative rather than predictive framework, our results show that epidemiological methods provide quantitative metrics for evaluating intervention priorities and trade-offs in complex multi-actor conflicts.

Background Decision-making in emergency services involving the allocation of scarce resources is a key challenge for large, complex organisations required to prioritise demand against multiple, often competing criteria. Emergency Medical Dispatch is a case in point, where Enhanced and Critical Care Teams (ECCTs) represent a scarce and lifesaving clinical resource. Despite its operational and system-level significance, the allocation of ECCTs remains under-researched. Methods We conducted a methodological development study using the P.A.T.H.S. framework (Participants, Artefacts, Transition Stages, Historicity, Setting). We designed and piloted this in our previous work under the 999 R.E.S.P.O.N.D. project, which examined the decision-making process for ECCT dispatch. We applied P.A.T.H.S. to 17 dispatch cases (comprising 100 decision-making episodes). We analysed five data sources: recordings of emergency calls and internal dispatch-related interactions, sequence-of-events records, policy documents, and ethnographic observations. A four-phase analysis--indexing & data mapping, transcription & coding, charting, and synthesising & outputs--was undertaken taking Interactional Sociolinguistics as the theoretical approach and methodology. Results P.A.T.H.S. enables the mapping of non-linear, multifactorial textual trajectories across human and non-human actors. The case example presented herein illustrates how information on key risk indicators (e.g. mechanism of injury) were often delayed, fragmented, or lost between the caller, call-handler, and written records. P.A.T.H.S. provides a framework and analytical tool capturing the textual trajectory of information flow, and trace how dispatch decision making unfolds. We subsequently developed a template and codebook for other researchers to further study complex decision making in multi-actoral systems using a textual trajectory approach. Conclusion This methodological development work demonstrates the potential of P.A.T.H.S. to capture and clarify complex decision-making processes. P.A.T.H.S. offers a practical and theoretically grounded framework for future research, training, and policy that addresses risk points in communication between oral and written forms among teams of actors, to support optimal deployment of scarce resources.

Influenza surveillance has typically been carried out using influenza-like illness (ILI) rates and proportions of laboratory tests positive for influenza as metrics to monitor, with sample sizes for the number of tests to carry out based on the precision of the resulting estimate of proportions positive. The transition out of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic period has encouraged the establishment of integrated surveillance of respiratory pathogens, in the context of multiple surveillance objectives, as set out by WHO in its revised integrated surveillance guidance and Mosaic Respiratory Surveillance Framework. These objectives include outbreak detection, situational awareness and intensity evaluation, among others. We illustrate how to design respiratory surveillance in primary care, by considering multiple surveillance objectives for different metrics of different types of respiratory pathogen circulation seasons in England, the USA and Hong Kong. We focus on a proxy of influenza activity as a metric to compare between these countries/regions. Taking advantage of England's integrated sentinel primary care surveillance system, we propose further metrics to monitor: a proxy of respiratory activity, novelly defined as the product of an acute respiratory infection (ARI) consultation rate and the proportion of tests positive for \emph{at least one pathogen}; pathogen-specific ARI-based activity proxies for more detailed monitoring of influenza and SARS-CoV-2; and integrated monitoring of proportions positive for all pathogens tested. We use a simulation approach to determine sample sizes by optimising either the probability of, or time to, detection of different events in monitored metrics, according to the different surveillance objectives. We find that sample sizes to maximise detection probabilities or minimise detection times vary by metric, objective, event and country/region. At a national level, the current sample sizes used are sufficient to detect most events in most weeks for both the USA and Hong Kong, but for England the numbers of swabs taken for ILI consultations may not be sufficient in all weeks, particularly at the start of the season when outbreak detection is important. However, broadening the criteria for swabbing to acute respiratory symptoms does allow for sufficient sample sizes.

Background Early recognition of presentations consistent with the deliberate release of a Category A bioterrorism agent is essential for rapid isolation, public health notification, and containment. The ability of UK clinicians-in-training to recognise these syndromes is unstudied. This pilot assessed final-year UK medical students' ability to recognise these syndromes. Methods A pilot cross-sectional online survey of final-year UK medical students used single-best-answer clinical vignettes depicting syndromes associated with Category A bioterrorism agents (BT vignettes) and clinically overlapping non-bioterrorism syndromes (NBT vignettes). Performance was summarised as the proportion of vignettes correctly identified, with primary analysis comparing within-participant BT and NBT performance. Results Twenty-five participants completed the survey. Participants performed worse on BT vignettes (M = 0.55) than on NBT vignettes (M = 0.81), with a within-participant difference of -0.26 (95% CI [-0.35, -0.18]; t(24) = -6.33, p < 0.001; Cohen's dz = -1.27). Botulism (96.0%) and Ebola virus disease (88.0%) were recognised by most participants, while anthrax (40.0%), pneumonic plague (28.0%), and smallpox (24.0%) were recognised by fewer than half. Conclusion This pilot provides the first UK evidence of a substantial diagnostic deficit in final-year medical students' recognition of Category A bioterrorism agent syndromes.

Introduction: Veterinary Professionals are at risk of contracting zoonoses, including potential emerging infections. Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) could reduce infection transmission risk, but use of it in the profession is low. Understanding Veterinary Professionals experiences with PPE could help identify facilitators and barriers, therefore informing a future strategy to improve usage. Methods: Two focus group discussion with veterinary nurses and two with veterinarians took place at a tertiary small animal teaching hospital. With an interpretivist epistemology, transcriptions were inductively coded and analysed using thematic analysis. Results: Veterinary Professionals frequently reported underusing PPE, despite significant zoonotic risk. Friction in interdisciplinary relationships negatively impacted veterinary professionals experiences with PPE: differing views on risk, policy and PPE, contrasting perceptions of each other, and challenges with communication impacted PPE decision-making. Barriers included an absence of initial recognition of risk, a staff culture of prioritising patient health over risk to self, friction in response to others PPE use or lack thereof, an overly complex policy, and a lack of cultural and institutional reaction to occupationally contracted zoonoses. Facilitators included effective inter and intradisciplinary communication and previous personal experience with serious zoonoses. Conclusion: Veterinary Professionals experiences with PPE, are shaped by social and professional factors, such as interdisciplinary friction, perceptions of self and others, of risk and policy. Recommendations are for the findings to be used locally to embed PPE use into everyday practice. At a national level, the United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) should use the findings to evaluate current policies regarding PPE and zoonoses in veterinary practice and produce a simplified national guidance, in collaboration with veterinary professionals with lived experience. Further research into General Practice Veterinary Professionals experiences and the interdisciplinary social dynamics is recommended.

Background: Alpha-gal syndrome (AGS) is an emerging disease, increasingly recognized as a public health concern in the United States. The primary cause of AGS in the United States is the bite of Amblyomma americanum ticks. White-tailed deer serve both as a preferred food source and as transport for A. americanum. In this work, we aim to quantify the effect of white-tailed deer abundance on number of AGS cases in United States counties. Methods: To mitigate concerns about confounding, we used the front-door formula, leveraging biological knowledge about the causal process. Due to lack of official data, our analysis relied on data made available by citizen science efforts. Results: We found that a higher number of reported white-tailed deer sightings in 2020 was associated with the county-level presence of A. americanum in 2024. In turn, county-level presence of A. americanum was associated with a higher number of self-reported AGS cases. We estimated that if white-tailed deer abundance had increased by 50%, 75%, or 100% in 2020, there would have been 89 (95%CI: 12, 252), 126 (12, 354) or 159 (6, 448) additional AGS self-reported cases in the US in 2025. Conclusions: The estimated associations are compatible with an effect of white-tailed deer abundance on AGS in the country. Due to measurement error, the low granularity of the available data, the ecological nature of the design, and the modelling choices, our effect estimates should be interpreted cautiously. Further studies are needed to quantify the population-level effect of white-tailed deer on AGS.

Summary Background: Wastewater and environmental surveillance (WES) enables community-level monitoring of infectious diseases. Most progress has focused on sewer-based surveillance, yet nearly half of the global population relies on non-sewered sanitation. In non-sewered settings, urban drainage channels have been used for poliovirus environmental surveillance, but their potential for a multi-pathogen WES with spatially defined catchments, and comparability to sewer-based surveillance, remains under-explored. Methods: Ten drainage channel sampling points with delineated micro-catchments (0.95-3.83 km2 with 12,885-44,146 people) were selected within Kampala. A total of 255 drainage channel and 54 wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent samples were collected during two campaigns in March and September-October 2025. A multi-target panel was quantified by digital PCR, including enteric viruses (Norovirus GI and GII, Rotavirus), respiratory viruses (SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A and B viruses, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)), non-O1/O139 Vibrio cholerae (V. cholerae), and Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV) as a fecal indicator. Findings: Enteric viruses, non-O1/O139 V. cholerae, and PMMoV were consistently detected across all drainage channels and WWTP influents. Concentrations were generally lower in drainage than WWTP influents, except for non-O1/O139 V. cholerae. When normalized by PMMoV, concentrations across most drainage channels were comparable to WWTP influents, although comparability varied by target and location. Both concentrations and PMMoV-normalized concentrations varied across sampling locations. Trends between campaigns varied by pathogen target and were not explained by any single micro-catchment characteristic. Influenza A virus was the most frequently detected respiratory virus (8-23% in drainage channels; 3-10% in WWTP influents), while SARS-CoV-2, Influenza B, and RSV were rarely detected. Interpretation: PMMoV-normalized concentrations across most micro-catchments were comparable to WWTP influents, with spatial heterogeneity implying neighborhood-level differences in disease prevalence. Catchment-delineated drainage surveillance has potential to offer spatially resolved public health information in non-sewered settings comparable to sewer-based wastewater monitoring. Funding: Eawag Discretionary Funding

Large religious mass gatherings can facilitate infectious disease transmission through crowding, prolonged close contact, shared facilities, and extensive population movement. The 2025 Uganda Martyrs Day commemoration occurred during an ongoing national mpox outbreak. We describe the implementation of syndromic surveillance for mpox during a large religious mass gathering and the yield of mpox-compatible illness detected among pilgrims. We conducted a cross-sectional symptom-screening survey and retrospectively reviewed emergency medical services (EMS) records from the Namugongo Catholic and Protestant shrines during 29 May-5 June 2025. Pilgrims aged [&ge;]18 years were selected through systematic sampling at entrance gates and random sampling within demarcated zones. Mpox-compatible illness was defined as acute fever ([&ge;]38.5{degrees}C) with rash and at least one of headache, lymphadenopathy, back pain, myalgia, or profound weakness. We summarized participant characteristics, reported symptoms, mpox-compatible illness, and provisional diagnoses among pilgrims seeking care. Of 1,523 pilgrims approached, 1,299 participated (85.3% response rate); median age was 35 years (interquartile range: 25-49), and 752 (57.9%) were male. Among actively screened pilgrims, 73 (5.6%) reported [&ge;]2 mpox-related symptoms, and seven (0.5%) met the mpox-compatible illness definition. Among 5,216 pilgrims who sought care, 3,415 (65.5%) had documented presenting symptoms; of these, 628 (18.4%) had mpox-related syndromic presentations. Among all 5,216 care-seekers, the most common provisional diagnoses were peptic ulcer disease (n=563; 10.8%), respiratory tract infection (n=482; 9.2%), malaria (n=190; 3.6%), urinary tract infection (n=96; 1.8%), and gastritis (n=79; 1.5%). Active symptom screening suggested a low prevalence of mpox-compatible illness in the general pilgrim population, whereas EMS records identified a larger syndromic signal among pilgrims who sought care. Combining both approaches with standardized documentation, clinical triage, laboratory confirmation, and follow-up could improve detection during mass gatherings

Abstract Background: Urogenital schistosomiasis remains a major neglected tropical disease in rural communities, particularly in reservoir-adjacent settings where sustained human-water contact facilitates persistent transmission. Despite ongoing control efforts, communities located around reservoirs may experience persistent transmission partly due to socioeconomic water exposure and presence of infected intermediate host snails in aquatic habitats. This study assessed the prevalence, intensity, and epidemiological correlates of Schistosoma haematobium infection in reservoir-adjacent communities in Kano State, Nigeria to better understand local transmission. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 447 consenting participants from six communities located around three water reservoirs in Kano State. Sociodemographic characteristics, water-contact behaviour, sanitation practices, treatment-seeking behaviour, and knowledge related to urogenital schistosomiasis were obtained using interviewer-administered questionnaires. Urine samples collected between 10:00 and 14:00 were examined using microscopy following centrifugation/sedimentation. Schistosoma haematobium isolates were characterised by molecular methods, using PCR and Sanger dideoxy sequencing. Bulinus snails were collected from the reservoirs by handpicking and scooping methods. Nucleotide sequences were analysed using NCBI BLAST to confirm species identity. Epidemiological data on Schistosoma haematobium infection were analysed using chi-square tests and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess associations with explanatory variables. Results: The overall prevalence of S. haematobium infection was 34.23% (153/447), indicating moderate endemicity. Molecular study confirmed the occurrence of pure S. haematobium. Community-specific prevalence ranged from 32.35% to 37.84%. Heavy-intensity infection (>50 eggs/10 mL urine) occurred in 17.65% of infected participants. Infection was most common among children and adolescents and was higher in males than females, although the sex difference was not statistically significant. Water-contact behaviour was the strongest correlate of infection: participants reporting water contact had a markedly higher prevalence than those without such exposure (39.12% vs 3.28%; OR = 18.96, 95% CI: 4.56-78.73). Fetching water (aOR = 2.57; 95% CI = 1.53 -4.34; p < 0.001) and Swimming (aOR = 2.37; 95% CI = 1.42 -3.94; p = 0.001) were the specific activities most strongly associated with higher odds of S. haematobium infection. Age (aOR = 0.91; 95% CI = 0.87 - 0.95; p < 0.001) significantly reduced the odds of infection. In terms of gender, female participants had significantly lower odds of infection compared with males (aOR = 0.52; 0.29 0.92; p = 0.03). Knowledge of transmission was poor, with only a small proportion of participants correctly identifying contact with contaminated water as the cause of infection. A rare ectopic detection of S. mansoni eggs in urine was also observed. Presence of S. haematobium-infected Bulinus intermediate hosts in the water reservoirs was reported. Conclusions: Urogenital schistosomiasis remains actively transmitted in reservoir-adjacent communities in Kano State, with infection strongly associated with frequent human-water contact and poor disease knowledge. These findings support the need for integrated control strategies combining praziquantel-based preventive chemotherapy, targeted health education, improved water and sanitation, and behaviour-focused interventions to reduce reinfection and interrupt transmission. Keywords: Urogenital schistosomiasis, Schistosoma haematobium, water reservoirs, prevalence, risk factors

Gastrointestinal Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections, primarily associated with consumption of oysters, are emerging in Australia, where previously little was known about the disease and epidemiology. Following a multijurisdictional outbreak in 2021 and additional smaller outbreaks in subsequent years, an opportunistic whole genome sequencing study was undertaken to characterise human illness-causing strains in Australia. Through a multijurisdictional collaboration that bridged research, government, pathology service providers, aquaculture and clinicians, 676 V. parahaemolyticus genomes were contributed for analysis from human clinical, food, and environmental samples. We identified ST36, ST50 and ST417 as the dominant multi-locus sequence types causing gastrointestinal illness nationally. Phylogeographic contextualisation of Australian V. parahaemolyticus sequences within the global dataset indicates the Australian and New Zealand ST36 strain originated from a single point of introduction from the US Pacific-Northwest and is now circulating locally. In contrast, ST50 and ST417 appear to be endemic across Australia, with multiple lineages co-circulating. These findings establish a baseline for future outbreak investigations of V. parahaemolyticus in Australia and the consolidation of Australian data provides a critical platform for ongoing research, public health surveillance and risk mitigation.

As vaccination rates have declined, large measles outbreaks have taken hold in vulnerable populations. In 2025, the United States saw the highest number of measles cases since 1991. After Utahs first case in June 2025, the Utah Public Health Laboratory (UPHL) began performing whole genome sequencing (WGS) on clinical measles samples. As Utahs outbreak grew, public health professionals used WGS data to identify clusters of disease, and combined genomic and epidemiologic data to identify factors that may fuel the spread of disease throughout the state. This study used sequenced samples from 65% of reported measles cases in Utah. Time-scaled and maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees were generated. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) threshold of one was used to generate genomic clusters, and a Fishers Exact test was used to determine association between genomic cluster and epidemiological variables. Epidemiological clusters were assessed using annotated phylogenetic trees. We found multiple introductions of measles into Utah, with one accounting for the majority of cases. As measles spread, two phylogenetic clades emerged with differing geographical case compositions. We identified a significant association between shared school and genomic clustering, and we reconstructed transmission chains within schools and emerging from school sporting events. This study demonstrates the utility of WGS in real-time outbreak investigations. Sequencing data allowed for gaps in epidemiological data to be filled, revealing undetected transmission and clarifying whether cases belong to a known outbreak. We also highlight that schools and high-contact sporting events played a significant role in fueling transmission across the state.

Background: Ebola virus disease is a life-threatening illness caused by the Ebolavirus, with symptoms manifesting two to twenty-one days after infection. Although Uganda has faced multiple Ebola outbreaks, many patients survive only to encounter persistent challenges. Therefore, this study explored the post-discharge experiences of survivors following the 2022 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in Uganda. Methods: An exploratory qualitative study comprising of in-depth participant interviews was conducted at Mubende Regional Referral Hospital in central Uganda. Interviews were face-to-face and data were analyzed manually by inductive content analysis. Ten male and female participants were Ebola Virus Disease survivors in Mubende district who had lived in the community for at least six months post-discharge from the Ebola Treatment Unit. Results: Four themes emerged: (i) Psychosocial Burdens and Social Exclusion, (ii) Economic Hardship and Loss of Financial Stability, (iii) Chronic Physical and Health Burdens Post-Recovery and (iv) Rebuilding Lives: Psychological, Social, and Medical Pathways to Recovery. Survivors faced significant emotional burdens such as survivor guilt, grief, trauma from loss, and anxiety about transmission risks. They experienced social isolation, stigma, and discrimination, which often led to their exclusion from community activities. Financially, they struggled with debt and the loss of livelihoods, compounded by ongoing health issues. Additionally, survivors endured chronic physical complications, including pain and fatigue, which hindered their recovery. Despite these challenges, survivors sought psychological, social, and medical pathways to recovery, including confirmation of their recovery, support from family and organizations, and health maintenance practices. Supportive medical care and community assistance were crucial in their physical and emotional rehabilitation. Conclusion: Ebola Virus Disease survivors in Uganda face significant psychosocial, health, social, and economic challenges post-discharge. The findings highlight the critical need for comprehensive medical and community-based support systems to aid survivors' recovery and well-being. Further research on long-term neurological effects and community reintegration programmes is needed to inform targeted interventions that support Ebola survivors and reduce stigma and discrimination.

Rabies remains a major zoonotic public health threat, associated with approximately 59,000 annual deaths globally, with Africa bearing 36% of this burden. In Uganda, an estimated 36 human deaths and 1.8 million dog bite exposures occur annually, yet national dog vaccination coverage remains critically low at approximately 10%. This study investigated factors associated with rabies vaccination uptake among dog owners in Butaleja Town Council, Eastern Uganda, a high-risk setting. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 173 dog owners between May 18 and June 28, 2024, using semi-structured questionnaires. The primary outcome was vaccination uptake ([&ge;]1 dose in the past year). Modified Poisson regression with robust variance estimated adjusted prevalence ratios for all socio-demographic, veterinary system, health system, dog-related, and knowledge factors. Among 173 dog owners, 57.2% vaccinated at least one dog, corresponding to 54.6% (166/304) of all dogs vaccinated. Factors associated with vaccination uptake included older age (21-40 years: aPR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.15-1.71; 41-60 years: aPR 1.53, 95% CI: 1.22-1.82; [&ge;]61 years: aPR 1.56, 95% CI: 1.33-2.23), higher education (primary: aPR 1.20, 95% CI: 1.00-1.45; secondary: aPR 1.55, 95% CI: 1.20-2.00), higher income, access to veterinary clinics (aPR 2.50, 95% CI: 1.52-3.75), and participation in community education sessions (aPR 1.71, 95% CI: 1.34-2.15). While household-level uptake showed moderate engagement, the resulting dog population vaccination coverage of 48.4% remained substantially below the 70% World Health Organization threshold required for herd immunity. Achieving the "Zero by 30" elimination dog-bite mediated Rabies target in this setting requires targeted interventions addressing the identified associated factors including; enhanced community education, improved veterinary service accessibility, reminder systems, and strategies to convert partial household vaccination into complete coverage particularly among younger, less educated, and lower-income dog owners.

Background Floods are among the most devastating natural disasters worldwide and are increasingly associated with adverse mental health outcomes, particularly Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). In December 2023, Hanang District in northern Tanzania experienced catastrophic mud floods that resulted in extensive loss of life, destruction of property, displacement of households, and disruption of livelihoods. While emergency humanitarian responses focused primarily on physical needs, limited evidence exists regarding the long-term psychological consequences among survivors. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the patterns of PTSD manifestations and assess cognitive factors associated with PTSD symptoms among flood victims in Hanang District, Tanzania. Methods A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 360 flood victims one year after the disaster. PTSD symptoms were assessed using the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5). Descriptive statistics summarized PTSD severity, while chi-square tests and regression analyses examined associations between socio-demographic characteristics and PTSD manifestations. Cognitive factors were assessed based on participants' exposure to traumatic experiences and perceptions of traumatic events. Results The mean PCL-5 score was 39.2 (SD = 20.6), indicating a high burden of psychological distress. Approximately 45% of respondents had severe PTSD symptoms (PCL-5 [&ge;]45), while another substantial proportion demonstrated moderate symptom severity. PTSD manifestations varied significantly by geographical location (p < 0.001), household income (p = 0.011), and marital status (p = 0.002). Age positively predicted PTSD severity ({beta} = 0.019, p = 0.001), whereas household income negatively predicted symptom severity ({beta} = -0.297, p = 0.001). Exposure to natural disasters constituted the predominant cognitive factor, with 45% directly experiencing the flood and 38.3% witnessing the event. Exposure to secondary traumatic experiences through witnessing or learning about violent events was also common. Cognitive trauma exposure demonstrated a significant association with PTSD symptoms ({chi}2, p < 0.001). Conclusion PTSD remains highly prevalent among flood survivors in Hanang district. Both direct and indirect trauma exposure significantly contributed to PTSD manifestations. Comprehensive disaster recovery programmes should integrate trauma-focused psychological services, cognitive behavioural interventions, routine PTSD screening, and community-based psychosocial support alongside socioeconomic recovery initiatives.

Introduction: Clinical students are a future health workforce, yet their roles during outbreaks of highly infectious diseases remain uncertain because of safety, training, supervision and welfare concerns. Ugandas 2022 outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Sudan ebolavirus highlighted the need to understand how clinical students perceive outbreak-related care. Aim: This study explored willingness to care for patients with Ebola virus disease among clinical students at a Ugandan medical school and examined how perceived risks, perceived benefits and support needs shaped that willingness. Methods: An exploratory descriptive qualitative study was conducted among clinical students of Makerere University in Kampala, Uganda. Fifteen undergraduate medical and nursing students in the later years of training were purposively selected. Data were collected through in-depth interviews, audio-recorded with consent, transcribed verbatim, de-identified and analysed using latent content analysis. The Health Belief Model sensitised interpretation, and reporting was strengthened using the COREQ guidance. Results: Five interrelated themes emerged, showing that willingness to care was conditional rather than simply present or absent. Students described an initial willingness grounded in professional duty, devotion to patients and the desire to save life. This willingness was restrained by perceived risks of contracting Ebola virus disease, dying, transmitting infection to family members or colleagues, emotional distress, lack of epidemic-readiness in the curriculum, inadequate preparedness and weak welfare support. Perceived benefits, including patient survival, professional learning, outbreak experience and personal fulfilment, strengthened willingness but did not override safety concerns. Students identified reliable personal protective equipment, epidemic-ready curricula, practical infection-prevention and control training, simulation, clear protocols, close supervision, psychosocial support, insurance and fair compensation as cues to action that could convert willingness into safe participation. Conclusions: Clinical students in this Ugandan teaching hospital expressed a strong sense of professional responsibility, but their willingness to participate in Ebola care was conditional upon preparedness, protection, epidemic-ready education and institutional trust. Professional duty and learning opportunities promoted participation, whereas perceived risks and inadequate support limited it. Medical education programmes and outbreak-response systems should develop ethical, supervised, competency-based student roles supported by practical curricula, reliable protective equipment and psychosocial and welfare safeguards.

Background Rural-urban disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection epidemiology remain poorly quantified and understood in Zambia despite differences in healthcare access, services and preventive interventions. This study examined the geographical distribution and associated factors of SARS-CoV-2 cases across selected rural and urban districts of Zambia. Methods A convergent mixed-methods study comprised of quantitative survey and qualitative interviews was conducted in; Ndola (Urban), Kafue (Peri-urban) and Lufwanyama (Rural). The proximate determinant framework guided variable selection and interpretation. Quantitative combined (Hospital-surveillance data with community survey), while qualitative included In-depth interviews. Participants were sampled using multistage sampling technique. Quantitative data were analysed using STATA version 17, while qualitative data were analysed thematically. Findings were integrated through triangulation. Results A total of 528 participants were included, with a median age 31 years (15-71). Overall SARS-CoV-2 positivity was 12.6%, varying across rural (16.5%), peri-urban (14.9%), and urban (9.9%) settings, though residence was not associated with infection (P<0.132). Participants aged [&ge;]49 years had significantly higher odds of infection (aOR=8.78; 95% CI:1.15-66.99), whereas secondary education (aOR=0.37; 95% CI:0.16-0.86) and hospital-based testing (aOR=0.37; 95% CI:0.15-0.92) were associated with lower odds of infection. Vaccine uptake was highest in urban areas but was not independently associated with infection. Qualitative findings revealed marked rural-urban differences in perceived susceptibility, testing access, vaccine decision-making, and adherence to preventive measures, explaining several quantitative observations. Conclusion SARS-CoV-2 infection across rural and urban settings in Zambia was influenced by demographic, behavioral, and health-system factors rather than geographic residence alone. These findings highlight the need for context-specific prevention strategies, equitable access to testing, strengthened community surveillance, and targeted risk communication to improve preparedness and response for future respiratory disease outbreaks.

Bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs) pose a major global public health challenge, with Neisseria gonorrhoeae being of particular concern due to its persistently high prevalence and increasing antimicrobial resistance. The emergence of multidrug-resistant strains has narrowed treatment options, highlighting the importance of prevention. In this context, knowing whether there is superspreading (transmission heterogeneity) within a population becomes crucial for accurate public health measures. However, classic methods to quantify superspreading rely on dense contact tracing, and this is not always feasible. As an alternative, we can use Bayesian phylodynamic modelling to infer transmission dynamics, including superspreading. Yet modelling transmission dynamics using bacterial data remains problematic, although it is widely used for viral data. Here, we apply a multi-type birth-death model parametrised to quantify superspreading in N. gonorrhoeae outbreaks, estimating the fraction and relative impact of superspreaders and reproductive numbers for superspreaders and non-superspreaders. We also use a hierarchical modelling strategy with partial pooling to increase the power for detecting superspreading in each cluster. Model performance was successfully evaluated across a range of superspreading scenarios using both transmission-informed phylogenies and sequence data with phylogenetic uncertainty. Application to empirical genomic data revealed a substantial role of superspreading in N. gonorrhoeae transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. These results highlight the impact of superspreading in N. gonorrhoeae transmission and the importance of detecting it to efficiently stop the dissemination of the disease

Background: We examined ethnic differences in age-standardised net survival (ANS) for eight common cancers diagnosed in England between 2010 and 2019. Methods: Analyses included 247,428 patients aged [&ge;]40 years diagnosed with breast, prostate, lung, colorectal, cervical, ovarian, myeloma, and oesophagogastric cancers. Net survival was estimated at one, three, and five years using the Pohar-Perme estimator and age-standardised with International Cancer Survival Standards weights across four age bands. Results: Compared with White patients, Black patients had higher ANS for lung and prostate cancers at all time points, for myeloma at one year, and for oesophagogastric cancer at one and three years. However, they had lower ANS for breast cancer at three years. Asian patients had higher ANS for lung, prostate, and oesophagogastric cancers at all time points, and for other sites at varying follow-up times. Patients in the Mixed group had higher ANS for most cancers, whereas those in the Other ethnic group generally had lower ANS compared with White patients. Conclusions: Ethnic minority groups in England do not consistently experience poorer cancer survival, with varying patterns observed by cancer site. Universal healthcare access may reduce disparities observed elsewhere, highlighting the importance of context-specific research and public policy.

Background: Real-time outbreak analyses are often requested before surveillance systems have stabilised or epidemics have generated enough information for the desired inference. Existing approaches address surveillance quality, forecasting, estimands and identifiability separately, but do not provide a common rule for deciding which analytical product is supportable at a particular data vintage. We developed an estimand-first framework for analytical readiness. Methods: The framework distinguishes surveillance maturity (S), epidemic-process informativeness (E) and estimand-specific analytical readiness, defined as whether the available data vintage, observation process, method and decision-matched validation support a specified inference for a specified decision. We stress-tested four implications using longitudinal data from the 2018-2020 Ebola response in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), archived geographic forecasts, independent forecasting data from Western Area, Sierra Leone, and a targeted mortality-identifiability experiment. Results: During a documented DRC surveillance disruption and recovery, seven-day persistence forecasts had all-health-zone absolute errors of 1, 3, 18 and 4 cases across pre-shock, acute-shock, early-recovery and recovery origins; the largest error occurred during early recovery. Four-week reported-case trend multipliers changed from 0.67 and 0.73 to 1.12 and 1.29, while the final fit was strongly overdispersed (Pearson dispersion 7.65), demonstrating asynchronous readiness across estimands. Archived geographic forecasts improved a Top-3 allocation decision over cumulative burden at only one origin despite consistently lower Brier scores for one specification. In Western Area, persistence forecast mean absolute error increased from 39.1 cases at one week to 82.3 at four weeks, and a history-to-horizon ratio did not define a universal threshold. An observed reported case-fatality ratio of 0.40 was compatible with constructed latent fatality values from 0.10 to 0.80; increasing the reported denominator narrowed sampling uncertainty without reducing structural uncertainty. Conclusions: Analytical readiness is task- and vintage-specific rather than a property of a dataset. More data, model convergence or narrow intervals cannot substitute for estimand definition, observation-process awareness, decision-matched validation and explicit identification analysis. Keywords: outbreak analytics; surveillance maturity; analytical readiness; estimand; identifiability; forecasting; Ebola; reporting process; decision-matched validation